Rickard Rakell
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 58?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots203 × 0.1+20.3
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1659 × 0.01+16.6
- total140 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242140 = 58/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 140 points is 58 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.0% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (1715 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.3%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Ducks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 47.6% |
| 2013-14 | Ducks | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 49.0% |
| 2014-15 | Ducks | 71 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 12:34 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 8.6% | 46.6% |
| 2015-16 | Ducks | 72 | 20 | 23 | 43 | -1 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:04 | 7 | 2 | 169 | 11.8% | 43.7% |
| 2016-17 | Ducks | 71 | 33 | 18 | 51 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 17:23 | 10 | 1 | 177 | 18.6% | 42.2% |
| 2017-18 | Ducks | 77 | 34 | 35 | 69 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 19:25 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 14.8% | 46.5% |
| 2018-19 | Ducks | 69 | 18 | 25 | 43 | -13 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 18:28 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 9.3% | 35.4% |
| 2019-20 | Ducks | 65 | 15 | 27 | 42 | -5 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 18:10 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 8.1% | 76.9% |
| 2020-21 | Ducks | 52 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -14 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17:50 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 6.3% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Ducks | 51 | 16 | 12 | 28 | -7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18:21 | 1 | 1 | 136 | 11.8% | 44.6% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 19 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 8.3% | 60.0% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 82 | 28 | 32 | 60 | -5 | 16 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 18:26 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 11.5% | 47.6% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 70 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16:31 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 9.1% | 23.1% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 81 | 35 | 35 | 70 | -22 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 19:18 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 17.2% | 42.2% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 60 | 24 | 24 | 48 | -2 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 18:57 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 14.5% | 36.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 19:45 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 13.0% | 42.9% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 23 | 24 | 47 | — | 28 | — | 16 | — | 17:59 | — | — | 177 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Artturi Lehkonen (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Chris Kreider (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Timo Meier (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ SJS | |||||
| P3 03:28 | PP | Assist | Kindel (Rakell, Karlsson) → 2-0 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · McGroarty · Kindel Karlsson · Girard · Korczak | Wennberg · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 13:42 | PP | Goal | Rakell (Crosby, Malkin) → 2-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Korczak | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Carlsson Helleson · Luneau · Mintyukov · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 09:58 | EV | Goal | Rakell (Novak, Korczak) → 2-1 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson Stastney · Korczak | Stone · Karlsson · Barbashev · Eichel · Marner · Howden Hanifin · Coghlan Hill (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 07:28 | EV | Assist | Novak (Rakell, Crosby) → 2-2 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Carlile | Danault · Texier · Caufield · Newhook · Bolduc · Slafkovský Carrier · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| P2 03:45 | EV | Goal | Rakell (Karlsson) → 3-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Stastney · Carlile | Danault · Texier · Caufield · Newhook · Bolduc · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle · Xhekaj · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Rickard over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 161 | 10 | |
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 109 | 10 | |
| Tommy Novak PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Spencer Stastney PIT | 58 | 10 | |
| Kris Letang PIT | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats