Sean Couturier
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM32 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1368 × 0.01+13.7
- total74 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24274 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 74 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.2 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.7
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (1300 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.7%, worth PD −1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Flyers | 77 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14:08 | 4 | 0 | 116 | 11.2% | 47.0% |
| 2012-13 | Flyers | 46 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -8 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15:53 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 5.3% | 43.9% |
| 2013-14 | Flyers | 82 | 13 | 26 | 39 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 19:05 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 7.9% | 47.8% |
| 2014-15 | Flyers | 82 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 18:23 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 10.1% | 48.4% |
| 2015-16 | Flyers | 63 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 18:36 | 1 | 0 | 119 | 9.2% | 48.6% |
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 66 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:27 | 2 | 0 | 120 | 11.7% | 55.1% |
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 82 | 31 | 45 | 76 | 34 | 31 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 21:36 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 13.7% | 52.8% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 80 | 33 | 43 | 76 | 2 | 34 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 22:08 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 14.8% | 57.1% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 69 | 22 | 37 | 59 | 21 | 30 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 19:50 | 4 | 1 | 185 | 11.9% | 59.6% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 45 | 18 | 23 | 41 | -4 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19:20 | 4 | 0 | 120 | 15.0% | 56.9% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 29 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20:24 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 7.6% | 55.6% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 74 | 11 | 27 | 38 | -10 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17:49 | 3 | 2 | 192 | 5.7% | 53.5% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 79 | 15 | 30 | 45 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:18 | 2 | 1 | 155 | 9.7% | 56.1% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 78 | 12 | 24 | 36 | -5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 10.1% | 54.2% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5% | 58.9% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 9 | 23 | 32 | — | 36 | — | 1 | — | 15:53 | — | — | 113 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Radek Faksa (2025-25) · Adam Lowry (2025-25) · Sam Steel (2025-25) · Eetu Luostarinen (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P1 12:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Couturier, Drysdale) → 1-0 | Couturier · Acciari Seeler · Drysdale | Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| P2 02:16 | EV | Assist | #? (Seeler, Couturier) → 2-1 | Couturier · Barkey Seeler · Benoit | Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 05:35 | EV | Assist | #? (York, Couturier) → 5-1 | Couturier · Tippett · Foerster York | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Sergachev · Duda Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 04:36 | EV | Goal | Couturier (Seeler) → 1-1 | Couturier · Bump · Foerster York · Seeler | Leonard · Strome · Kyrou Liljegren · Fehérváry Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sean over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari PHI | 78 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 74 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 63 | 10 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 57 | 10 | |
| Denver Barkey PHI | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats