Simon Nemec
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1799 × 0.01+18
- total64 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16664 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 64 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.4
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.4% (200 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.9%, worth PD −3.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Devils | 60 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -7 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:52 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 27 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:59 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 68 | 11 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:40 | 3 | 3 | 101 | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 2 | 26 | 28 | — | 18 | — | 1 | — | 20:30 | — | — | 123 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Oliver Kylington (2023-23) · Shakir Mukhamadullin (2025-25) · Declan Chisholm (2025-25) · Kaiden Guhle (2025-25) · Jordie Benn (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P4 04:08 | EV | Assist | Coronato (Gridin, Nemec) → 4-3 | Coronato · Gridin Nemec | Dvorak · Tippett York Vladar (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 16:29 | EV | Assist | Hanley (Frost, Nemec) → 2-1 | Strome · Frost · Pospisil · Sharangovich · Suniev · Gridin Hanley · Nemec | Killorn · Caulfield · Colangelo · Carlsson · Myatovic · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mitchell Dostal (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 10:05 | EV | Assist | Gridin (Pospisil, Nemec) → 1-0 | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Mermis · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 19:21 | EV | Assist | Pospisil (Gridin, Nemec) → 5-2 | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec | Sissons · MacEwen · Paul · Lettieri Raddysh · Ekman-Larsson |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Simon over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bahl CGY | 104 | 7 | |
| Joel Farabee CGY | 69 | 10 | |
| Mikael Backlund CGY | 66 | 10 | |
| Matt Coronato CGY | 65 | 10 | |
| Ryan Strome CGY | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats