Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots119 × 0.1+11.9
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)956 × 0.01+9.6
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 10:25/game over the last 6, down 15% from 12:13 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (34 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.5%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Senators | 30 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8:31 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 11.8% | 38.8% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11:21 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 45.6% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 15 | 21 | 36 | — | 23 | — | 9 | — | 12:51 | — | — | 126 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs WSH | |||||
| P2 16:04 | EV | Assist | Hodgson (Chabot, Halliday) → 2-1 | Giroux · Amadio · Hodgson · Tomasino · Greig · Halliday Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo | Jenner · Wilson · Strome · Beauvillier · Leonard · Protas Roy · Chychrun · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 05:27 | PP | Assist | Zetterlund (Halliday, Tomasino) → 1-0 | Giroux · Amadio · Zetterlund · Cozens · Tomasino · Pinto · Halliday Chabot · Kleven · Matinpalo | Trocheck · Schmaltz · Carcone · McBain · Guenther Sergachev · DeSimone · Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Stephen over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson OTT | 57 | 10 | |
| Thomas Chabot OTT | 46 | 9 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 42 | 10 | |
| Jordan Spence OTT | 39 | 10 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo OTT | 30 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats