Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 86?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals35 × 3+105
- proj assists52 × 1+52
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots190 × 0.1+19
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1841 × 0.01+18.4
- total207 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242207 = 86/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 207 points is 86 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.9% shooting on 43 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.0% (1063 shots before this season) — that's 3.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.9%, worth PD +5.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Cozens 10.0%, Sanderson 4.8%, Zetterlund 5.1%, Batherson 22.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Senators | 53 | 12 | 17 | 29 | -18 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 15:44 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 10.8% | 29.6% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 79 | 22 | 36 | 58 | -27 | 37 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 18:25 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 12.5% | 38.1% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 78 | 39 | 51 | 90 | -3 | 54 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 21:16 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 17.1% | 41.6% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 75 | 18 | 52 | 70 | -17 | 28 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 21:07 | 2 | 2 | 192 | 9.4% | 46.7% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 82 | 24 | 55 | 79 | 0 | 46 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 19:49 | 2 | 2 | 162 | 14.8% | 47.8% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 80 | 34 | 49 | 83 | 7 | 39 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 20:16 | 5 | 2 | 194 | 17.5% | 53.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 22:00 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 21.3% | 56.9% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 35 | 52 | 87 | — | 33 | — | 25 | — | 19:18 | — | — | 172 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Nikolaj Ehlers (2025-25) · Martin Necas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 13:13 | EV | Goal | Stützle (Zetterlund, Cozens) → 2-0 | Zetterlund · Batherson · Cozens · Tomasino · Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo | Kadri · Landeskog · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Roy · Necas Kulak · Toews · Makar · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 19:44 | EV | Assist | Pinto (Stützle, Amadio) → 4-2 | Amadio · Blais · Hodgson · Pinto · Stützle · Halliday Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo | Trocheck · O'Brien · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Keller · Carcone · Guenther · Cooley Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 16:51 | EV | Assist | Amadio (Stützle, Zetterlund) → 2-1 | Amadio · Zetterlund · Batherson · Tomasino · Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Sanderson · Zub | Thompson · Krebs · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 13:25 | EV | Assist | Cozens (Stützle, Zub) → 1-0 | Giroux · Amadio · Zetterlund · Cozens · Greig · Stützle Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo | Goodrow · Marchment · Sherwood · Dellandrea · Ostapchuk · Misa Trouba · Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P2 10:54 | EV | Goal | Stützle (Sanderson, Cozens) → 3-1 | Amadio · Cozens · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Sanderson | Sherwood · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tim over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 90 | 10 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 86 | 8 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund OTT | 85 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 78 | 10 | |
| Artem Zub OTT | 68 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats