Zemgus Girgensons
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots123 × 0.1+12.3
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1203 × 0.01+12
- total64 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24264 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 64 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 3.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 1.7/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 12 of 15 for TBL — missed 3 games (2026-10-29, 2026-10-31, 2026-11-03).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.0% (614 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.5%, worth PD −1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Sabres | 70 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:19 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 7.0% | 41.7% |
| 2014-15 | Sabres | 61 | 15 | 15 | 30 | -16 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19:05 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 13.0% | 44.0% |
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 71 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:02 | 1 | 1 | 110 | 6.4% | 45.7% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 75 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 6.3% | 47.1% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 71 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -12 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 6.2% | 36.5% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 72 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 6.4% | 40.6% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 69 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:48 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 14.1% | 41.1% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 56 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:47 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 10.9% | 49.8% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 80 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -5 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 8.8% | 45.4% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 63 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 3 | 0 | 73 | 11.0% | 47.7% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 82 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 2.4% | 47.3% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 74 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 2 | 0 | 89 | 10.1% | 44.6% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 16 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 56.6% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 8 | 15 | 23 | — | 26 | — | 0 | — | 14:42 | — | — | 132 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jordan Greenway (2025-25) · Tyler Pitlick (2023-23) · Colton Sissons (2025-25) · Jason Dickinson (2025-25) · Ty Dellandrea (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ WPG | |||||
| P3 14:01 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 2-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Barron · Koepke · Rosén DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 05:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 4-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zemgus over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev TBL | 141 | 10 | |
| Pontus Holmberg TBL | 117 | 10 | |
| Ryan McDonagh TBL | 104 | 10 | |
| Erik Cernak TBL | 87 | 9 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats