Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 28?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots79 × 0.1+7.9
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1768 × 0.01+17.7
- total46 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16646 = 28/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 46 points is 28 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 19:05/game over the last 6, down 16% from 22:38 earlier in the season.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.0% (826 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.9%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Devils | 65 | 2 | 16 | 18 | -7 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:37 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Devils | 37 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Devils | 26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Devils | 64 | 3 | 21 | 24 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Devils | 82 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Oilers | 79 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 21 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 63 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 82 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -28 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Oilers | 49 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 56 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 7.7% | 100.0% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 82 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -23 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:17 | 3 | 1 | 119 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 82 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 27 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:38 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 81 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 82 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 22 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 82 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 2 | 13 | 15 | — | 31 | — | 0 | — | 20:14 | — | — | 90 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Troy Stecher (2025-25) · Brayden McNabb (2025-25) · Connor Clifton (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 19:05 | EV | Assist | Gaudreau (Larsson) → 2-6 | Stephenson · Gaudreau · McCann · Samoskevich · Winterton · Meyers Larsson · Mahura | Bennett · Lafferty · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Kulikov · Jones · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn SEA | 169 | 10 | |
| Freddy Gaudreau SEA | 73 | 10 | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | 56 | 10 | |
| Ben Meyers SEA | 55 | 10 | |
| Bobby McMann SEA | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats