Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots146 × 0.1+14.6
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1166 × 0.01+11.7
- total87 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24287 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 87 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.1% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.4% (1677 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD −2.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Islanders | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Islanders | 22 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:43 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 13.2% | 16.7% |
| 2014-15 | Islanders | 76 | 25 | 16 | 41 | 9 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14:24 | 6 | 0 | 197 | 12.7% | 100.0% |
| 2015-16 | Islanders | 80 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -2 | 51 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 14:35 | 3 | 0 | 183 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| 2016-17 | Islanders | 81 | 34 | 18 | 52 | 9 | 56 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 15:35 | 6 | 0 | 191 | 17.8% | 38.9% |
| 2017-18 | Islanders | 82 | 40 | 22 | 62 | -25 | 44 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 17:16 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 19.2% | 68.8% |
| 2018-19 | Islanders | 82 | 28 | 23 | 51 | 20 | 58 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 17:05 | 5 | 0 | 204 | 13.7% | 48.4% |
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 68 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 18:18 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 10.3% | 45.2% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 27 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:32 | 3 | 0 | 80 | 15.0% | 49.2% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 76 | 28 | 18 | 46 | -11 | 34 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 16:38 | 3 | 0 | 159 | 17.6% | 48.5% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 82 | 28 | 22 | 50 | -3 | 50 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 17:13 | 4 | 0 | 214 | 13.1% | 54.0% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 81 | 20 | 17 | 37 | 2 | 68 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15:34 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 10.8% | 43.2% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 82 | 29 | 25 | 54 | 3 | 35 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 17:04 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 12.4% | 44.4% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 82 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 0 | 44 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 15:38 | 4 | 0 | 199 | 9.5% | 53.7% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 44.4% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 13 | 20 | 34 | — | 17 | — | 6 | — | 14:23 | — | — | 142 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Trevor Moore (2025-25) · Ryan Hartman (2025-25) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Conor Garland (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ OTT | Assist | 09:57 · P1 · EV | Keller (Lee) → 1-1 | Keller · Hayton · Lee Peeke · Simashev · Sergachev | Stützle · Zetterlund · Cousins Zub · Sanderson Ersson (G) |
| Nov 3 | @ TOR | Assist | 13:42 · P2 · EV | Peeke (Keller, Lee) → 2-1 | Keller · Hayton · Lee Peeke · Schmidt | Sissons · Joshua · Nylander McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 24 | vs TBL | Goal | 14:39 · P2 · EV | Lee (Weegar, Trocheck) → 3-4 | Keller · Trocheck · Yamamoto · Lee Weegar | Hagel · Cirelli · Kucherov Lilleberg · Moser Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anders over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton UTA | 117 | 10 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto UTA | 66 | 5 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 64 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 63 | 10 | |
| Clayton Keller UTA | 56 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats