Brandon Duhaime
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 22?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots67 × 0.1+6.7
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1001 × 0.01+10
- total53 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24253 = 22/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 53 points is 22 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.3% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.5% (410 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.8%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Wild | 80 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 6.6% | 28.6% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:45 | 3 | 0 | 80 | 11.3% | 28.6% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 62 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:41 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 5.9% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 18 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 4.2% | 100.0% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 82 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 10.8% | 41.9% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 82 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:04 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 6.3% | 32.6% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 7 | 13 | 20 | — | 47 | — | 0 | — | 13:08 | — | — | 100 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jordan Greenway (2025-25) · Tyler Pitlick (2023-23) · Ty Dellandrea (2025-25) · Ryan Lomberg (2025-25) · Kurtis MacDermid (2022-22).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 13:39 | EV | Assist | MacEwen (Duhaime) → 5-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger McCabe · Raddysh | Hyman · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Murphy · Walman Jarry (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 10:01 | EV | Assist | Blueger (Duhaime, MacEwen) → 2-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
| P2 08:00 | EV | Goal | Duhaime (MacEwen, Blueger) → 3-3 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Blankenburg · Ekman-Larsson | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Durzi · Pettersson Garand (G) |
| P3 19:32 | EV | Assist | Stecher (Rielly, Duhaime) → 5-4 | Sissons · Paul · Duhaime · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Kartye · Cuylle Schneider · Gavrikov Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brandon over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Blueger TOR | 87 | 10 | |
| Zack MacEwen TOR | 62 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 47 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 47 | 10 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 38 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats