Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM67 × 0.05+3.4
- ice time (min)1290 × 0.01+12.9
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.7/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 20.0% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.9% (421 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.6%, worth PD +2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Rangers | 66 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:56 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 8.1% | 48.4% |
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 70 | 9 | 10 | 19 | -11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:09 | 2 | 0 | 64 | 14.1% | 48.2% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 42 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 3.0% | 46.6% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 47 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 23.1% | 48.1% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 54 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 11.3% | 51.5% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 72 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -11 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:14 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 10.5% | 45.1% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 80 | 23 | 17 | 40 | 17 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:52 | 4 | 1 | 125 | 18.4% | 52.7% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 58 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -9 | 41 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14:54 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 18.2% | 50.3% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 21 | 17 | 37 | — | 57 | — | 2 | — | 15:17 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Brett Howden (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 10:19 | EV | Goal | Howden (Karlsson, Marner) → 5-3 | Dowd · Karlsson · Marner · Howden · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Lauzon | Lee · Trocheck · Stenlund · Keller · Yamamoto · Hayton Peeke · DeSimone · Duda · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 05:38 | EV | Goal | Howden (Hanifin, Holtz) → 1-2 | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Hanifin · Coghlan | Dvorsky · Berggren · McMichael Fowler · Carlo Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brett over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner VGK | 84 | 10 | |
| William Karlsson VGK | 83 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 57 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 55 | 10 | |
| Brayden McNabb VGK | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats