Clayton Keller
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 89?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists71 × 1+71
- PP points66 × 0.5+33
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots230 × 0.1+23
- PIM71 × 0.05+3.6
- ice time (min)1566 × 0.01+15.7
- total215 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242215 = 89/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 215 points is 89 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.6% shooting on 52 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (1791 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.2%, worth PD −3.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 82 | 23 | 42 | 65 | -7 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 18:05 | 3 | 2 | 212 | 10.8% | 47.4% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 82 | 14 | 33 | 47 | -21 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 18:14 | 5 | 0 | 200 | 7.0% | 33.3% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 70 | 17 | 27 | 44 | -6 | 28 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 16:18 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 9.2% | 38.1% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 56 | 14 | 21 | 35 | -5 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:40 | 3 | 0 | 124 | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 67 | 28 | 35 | 63 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 20:08 | 2 | 2 | 177 | 15.8% | 42.6% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 82 | 37 | 49 | 86 | -2 | 49 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 20:45 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 16.6% | 34.9% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 78 | 33 | 43 | 76 | -20 | 32 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 19:15 | 4 | 0 | 228 | 14.5% | 46.2% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 81 | 30 | 60 | 90 | -12 | 28 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 19:07 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 13.8% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 82 | 26 | 62 | 88 | 21 | 38 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 19:05 | 6 | 4 | 225 | 11.6% | 38.2% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 5 | 20 | 25 | -7 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18:56 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 23 | 71 | 94 | — | 60 | — | 42 | — | 17:18 | — | — | 190 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: David Pastrnak (2025-25) · Connor McDavid (2025-25) · Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25) · Jack Eichel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ VGK | |||||
| P3 09:07 | EV | Assist | Simashev (McBain, Keller) → 3-4 | Trocheck · Crouse · Keller · Carcone · McBain Weegar · Sergachev · DeSimone · Simashev | Stone · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Eichel · Connelly Andersson · Wotherspoon · Lauzon · Coghlan Hart (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ OTT | |||||
| P1 09:57 | EV | Goal | Keller (Lee) → 1-1 | Lee · O'Brien · Stenlund · Keller · Carcone · Hayton Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev | Cousins · Blais · Hodgson · Zetterlund · Stützle · Halliday Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| P3 09:53 | EV | Assist | Hayton (Keller, Weegar) → 2-2 | Lee · Trocheck · Crouse · Keller · Hayton · Cooley Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev | Cousins · Blais · Zetterlund · Cozens · Pinto · Halliday Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P2 11:05 | PP | Assist | Cooley (Schmaltz, Keller) → 3-2 | Schmaltz · Crouse · Stenlund · Keller · McBain · Guenther · Cooley Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev | Anderson · Texier · Dach · Newhook · Bolduc Carrier · Xhekaj · Hutson · Engstrom Dobes (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 19:47 | PP | Assist | Guenther (Sergachev, Keller) → 1-0 | O'Brien · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Keller · Carcone · Guenther · Cooley Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev | Sissons · Paul · Joshua · Duhaime · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Tanev · McCabe · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Clayton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 105 | 10 | |
| Nick Schmaltz UTA | 102 | 9 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 64 | 10 | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA | 57 | 8 | |
| Anders Lee UTA | 56 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats