Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 95?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals33 × 3+99
- proj assists61 × 1+61
- PP points37 × 0.5+18.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots299 × 0.1+29.9
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1719 × 0.01+17.2
- total230 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242230 = 95/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 230 points is 95 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 64 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.8% (2617 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD −2.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Bruins | 46 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13:58 | 3 | 1 | 93 | 10.8% | 29.4% |
| 2015-16 | Bruins | 51 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:57 | 2 | 0 | 108 | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Bruins | 75 | 34 | 36 | 70 | 11 | 34 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 17:59 | 6 | 2 | 262 | 13.0% | 66.7% |
| 2017-18 | Bruins | 82 | 35 | 45 | 80 | 10 | 37 | 13 | 26 | 0 | 17:58 | 5 | 0 | 246 | 14.2% | 20.0% |
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 66 | 38 | 43 | 81 | 6 | 32 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 18:45 | 4 | 0 | 235 | 16.2% | 33.3% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 70 | 48 | 47 | 95 | 21 | 40 | 20 | 38 | 0 | 18:58 | 10 | 1 | 279 | 17.2% | 38.9% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 48 | 20 | 28 | 48 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 18:37 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 11.4% | 28.6% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 72 | 40 | 37 | 77 | 13 | 20 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 18:36 | 9 | 1 | 312 | 12.8% | 33.3% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 82 | 61 | 52 | 113 | 34 | 38 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 19:34 | 13 | 4 | 407 | 15.0% | 42.1% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 82 | 47 | 63 | 110 | 21 | 47 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 19:56 | 5 | 0 | 382 | 12.3% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 82 | 43 | 63 | 106 | 0 | 42 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 20:11 | 4 | 3 | 319 | 13.5% | 37.5% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 77 | 29 | 71 | 100 | 4 | 72 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 20:39 | 4 | 1 | 261 | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 20:17 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 11.9% | 42.9% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 33 | 61 | 95 | — | 34 | — | 34 | — | 18:21 | — | — | 226 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: David Pastrnak (2025-25) · Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 15:59 | PP | Assist | Geekie (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 3-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Geekie McAvoy | Eller · Hathaway · Lundell Gudas · Jones · Forsling · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| P3 00:58 | EV | Assist | Peterka (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 4-1 | Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka Borgen · Lohrei | Eller · Reinhart · Lundell Gudas · Jones · Mikkola · Balinskis Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 12:07 | EV | Assist | Zacha (Pastrnak, Peterka) → 1-1 | Kuraly · Pastrnak · Zacha · Jeannot · Kastelic · Peterka Lindholm · McAvoy · Lohrei · Brunet | Malkin · Brazeau · Lapierre · Chinakhov · Koivunen · Kindel Karlsson · Girard · Stastney · Korczak Silovs (G) |
| P2 14:24 | EV | Assist | Zacha (Peterka, Pastrnak) → 4-2 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Mittelstadt · Peterka · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs VGK | |||||
| P2 03:23 | PP | Assist | Geekie (Zacha, Pastrnak) → 2-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Geekie · Mittelstadt · Peterka · Minten · Hagens McAvoy · Lohrei | Stone · Karlsson · Eichel · Marner McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Lauzon Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with David over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha BOS | 154 | 9 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 122 | 10 | |
| JJ Peterka BOS | 108 | 10 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 87 | 10 | |
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 83 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats