Eric Robinson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots113 × 0.1+11.3
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1037 × 0.01+10.4
- total75 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24275 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 75 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.4% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (552 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.1%, worth PD −1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 50 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 3 | 0 | 69 | 10.1% | 36.4% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 56 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:24 | 2 | 0 | 75 | 10.7% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 67 | 10 | 17 | 27 | -1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | 1 | 0 | 104 | 9.6% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 72 | 12 | 12 | 24 | -21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 12.2% | 20.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 40 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 3.8% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 82 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 12.7% | 21.2% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 67 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 3 | 0 | 84 | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 10 | 23 | 33 | — | 17 | — | 0 | — | 13:24 | — | — | 124 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Kent Johnson (2025-25) · Gage Goncalves (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs CHI | Assist | 19:27 · P1 · EV | Martinook (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 4-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Miller · Walker | Moore · Frondell · Nazar Rinzel · Vlasic Knight (G) |
| Nov 7 | vs CHI | Assist | 10:54 · P1 · EV | Martinook (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 3-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Gostisbehere · Nikishin | Greenway · Smith · Boucher Korchinski · Cole Knight (G) |
| Nov 1 | vs WPG | Assist | 08:38 · P3 · EV | Kotkaniemi (Robinson, Gostisbehere) → 7-0 | Robinson · Blake · Kotkaniemi Gostisbehere · Välimäki | Rosen · Barron Ferraro · Salomonsson · Bauer Stevenson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Eric over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi CAR | 75 | 10 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere CAR | 46 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 44 | 10 | |
| Sean Walker CAR | 42 | 10 | |
| Jordan Martinook CAR | 39 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats