Gavin McKenna
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 61?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1184 × 0.01+11.8
- total147 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242147 = 61/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 147 points is 61 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 36 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 1.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.7%, worth PD +1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -10 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13:56 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 25 | 31 | 55 | — | 37 | — | 13 | — | 14:30 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 18 that is 5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 19:31 | EV | Assist | Cowan (McKenna, Paul) → 2-3 | Blueger · Paul · Duhaime · Tverberg · Cowan · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Tanev · McCabe | Kadri · MacKinnon · Necas · Kelly · O'Connor Kulak · Toews · Makar · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs MTL | |||||
| P3 07:14 | EV | Goal | McKenna (Joshua, Sissons) → 2-3 | Sissons · Joshua · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · McCabe · Raddysh · Stecher | Kreider · Danault · Evans · Texier · Bolduc · Beck Carrier · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 19:14 | PP | Goal | McKenna (Matthews, Raddysh) → 1-1 | Matthews · Cowan · Nylander · McKenna · Roslovic Raddysh | Stephenson · Winterton Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| P2 01:46 | PP | Goal | McKenna (Matthews, Roslovic) → 2-2 | Matthews · Nylander · McKenna · Roslovic Raddysh | Stephenson · McMann Mahura · Montour Grubauer (G) |
| P3 18:30 | EV | Assist | Matthews (Raddysh, McKenna) → 4-4 | Matthews · Cowan · Nylander · McKenna · Roslovic Raddysh | Stephenson · Samoskevich · Gaudreau Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Gavin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 60 | 10 | |
| Colton Sissons TOR | 47 | 8 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 45 | 10 | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | 43 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 41 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats