Jimmy Snuggerud
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 75?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots196 × 0.1+19.6
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1507 × 0.01+15.1
- total182 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242182 = 75/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 182 points is 75 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +9.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 23.8% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.7% (348 shots before this season) — that's 4.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.3%, worth PD +9.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Thomas 12.5%, Holloway 6.5%, Broberg 10.3%, Fowler 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blues | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 70 | 21 | 30 | 51 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 16:42 | 5 | 0 | 169 | 12.4% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18:02 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 23.8% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 37 | 23 | 60 | — | 29 | — | 13 | — | 16:50 | — | — | 171 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 02:34 | EV | Assist | Barron (Thomas, Snuggerud) → 2-1 | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron | Compher · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Faulk Gibson (G) |
| P3 15:58 | EV | Goal | Snuggerud (Holloway, #?) → 3-1 | Holloway · McTavish · Snuggerud Fowler · Carlo | Compher · Arvidsson · Rasmussen Seider · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 13:07 | PP | Goal | #? (Broberg, Thomas) → 1-0 | Thomas · Neighbours · McTavish Broberg | Drury · Schaefer Skjei · Perbix Saros (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P2 19:32 | EV | Goal | #? (Thomas, Broberg) → 2-3 | Thomas · Holloway Carlo · Broberg | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
| P3 12:57 | EV | Assist | #? (Snuggerud) → 4-4 | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Broberg | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jimmy over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas STL | 171 | 10 | |
| Dylan Holloway STL | 120 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 97 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 57 | 10 | |
| Jake Neighbours STL | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats