Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 67?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots269 × 0.1+26.9
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1753 × 0.01+17.5
- total111 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166111 = 67/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 111 points is 67 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (5 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 2 of 15 for WPG — missed 13 games (2026-11-01, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-05, 2026-11-08, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.8% (1292 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.4%, worth PD −3.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 82 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:29 | 3 | 0 | 99 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 81 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 15 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 6.9% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 59 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 22:24 | 2 | 1 | 95 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 65 | 5 | 26 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 22:46 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 56 | 4 | 17 | 21 | -1 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 23:33 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 79 | 12 | 25 | 37 | -3 | 66 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 23:40 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 78 | 16 | 60 | 76 | 2 | 41 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 24:14 | 6 | 2 | 172 | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 81 | 10 | 59 | 69 | 34 | 44 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 24:11 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 80 | 14 | 48 | 62 | 17 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 24:23 | 2 | 1 | 172 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 77 | 14 | 41 | 55 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 24:43 | 2 | 1 | 146 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:24 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 5 | 33 | 38 | — | 44 | — | 18 | — | 19:36 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P3 15:12 | EV | Assist | #? (Connor, Morrissey) → 7-3 | Scheifele · Connor Morrissey · Samberg | Benn · Rantanen · Johnston Myers · Taylor DeSmith (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Josh over the last 6 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele WPG | 77 | 6 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 76 | 6 | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG | 62 | 6 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG | 56 | 6 | |
| Dylan DeMelo WPG | 53 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats