Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1126 × 0.01+11.3
- total62 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24262 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 62 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (348 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.0%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 32 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13:59 | 1 | 0 | 57 | 10.5% | 40.3% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 32 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:32 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 11.9% | 47.3% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 54 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:39 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 9.5% | 53.2% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 81 | 11 | 4 | 15 | -10 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:36 | 3 | 0 | 81 | 13.6% | 51.4% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 82 | 14 | 14 | 28 | -6 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:21 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 13.7% | 59.1% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 80 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:29 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 6.1% | 54.2% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 57.9% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 8 | 17 | 25 | — | 43 | — | 0 | — | 14:06 | — | — | 106 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · Colin Blackwell (2025-25) · Samuel Blais (2023-23) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Tanner Jeannot (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 10:10 | EV | Goal | Stenlund (Sergachev, McBain) → 2-1 | Trocheck · Stenlund · McBain · Guenther · Cooley · But Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev | Malkin · Crosby · Rust · Novak · Chinakhov · Koivunen Letang · Korczak · Solovyov · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| P2 11:44 | EV | Assist | Schmidt (Stenlund, But) → 3-2 | Schmaltz · Crouse · Stenlund · Keller · McBain · But Schmidt · DeSimone | Malkin · Rust · Novak · Dewar · Koivunen Letang · Karlsson · Solovyov · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kevin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 61 | 10 | |
| Jack McBain UTA | 57 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 51 | 10 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 42 | 10 | |
| Daniil But UTA | 42 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats