Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 61?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots135 × 0.1+13.5
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1405 × 0.01+14.1
- total147 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242147 = 61/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 147 points is 61 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.0 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.2% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.0% (770 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 75.0% | 54.5% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 36 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:47 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 10.0% | 52.5% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 73 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -16 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12:36 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 7.2% | 52.5% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 69 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:27 | 3 | 0 | 81 | 11.1% | 49.2% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 76 | 17 | 22 | 39 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 15:25 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 13.1% | 44.1% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 77 | 33 | 24 | 57 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 16:55 | 4 | 0 | 150 | 22.0% | 46.5% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 81 | 39 | 29 | 68 | -5 | 22 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 17:24 | 6 | 1 | 181 | 21.5% | 45.6% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:29 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 17.2% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 22 | 37 | 59 | — | 40 | — | 26 | — | 16:06 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 15:59 | PP | Goal | Geekie (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 3-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Geekie McAvoy | Lundell Jones · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P2 16:57 | EV | Goal | #? (Lindholm) → 5-2 | Kuraly · Jeannot Lindholm · McAvoy | Rakell · Brazeau · Lapierre Karlsson · Stastney Silovs (G) |
| P3 08:39 | EV | Assist | #? (Geekie) → 6-2 | Geekie · Peterka Lindholm · Brunet | Brazeau · Koivunen · Kindel Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs VGK | |||||
| P2 03:23 | PP | Goal | #? (Zacha, Pastrnak) → 2-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha McAvoy | Karlsson · Marner McNabb · Theodore Hart (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 19:48 | EV | Goal | #? (McAvoy, Peterka) → 4-4 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka McAvoy | Mangiapane · Smith · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Morgan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 86 | 10 | |
| David Pastrnak BOS | 83 | 10 | |
| Fraser Minten BOS | 76 | 10 | |
| Pavel Zacha BOS | 66 | 9 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats