Morgan Rielly
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots98 × 0.1+9.8
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1576 × 0.01+15.8
- total80 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16680 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 80 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Did not play the last 3 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 16 for TOR — missed 3 games (2026-11-08, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.3% (1416 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.9%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Maple Leafs | 73 | 2 | 25 | 27 | -13 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 17:38 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Maple Leafs | 81 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -16 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 20:20 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -17 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 23:14 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 76 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -20 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22:10 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 76 | 6 | 46 | 52 | -4 | 14 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 21:36 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 20 | 52 | 72 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 23:07 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 47 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 24:12 | 2 | 1 | 123 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 55 | 5 | 30 | 35 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 23:37 | 1 | 1 | 101 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 10 | 58 | 68 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 23:44 | 3 | 0 | 221 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 65 | 4 | 37 | 41 | -9 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 21:42 | 1 | 0 | 126 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 72 | 7 | 51 | 58 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 23:44 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 7 | 34 | 41 | -8 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 21:23 | 2 | 1 | 126 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 11 | 25 | 36 | -18 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 21:08 | 2 | 0 | 141 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 18 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 2 | 44 | 47 | — | 42 | — | 5 | — | 18:53 | — | — | 100 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Miro Heiskanen (2025-25) · John Carlson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 09:05 | EV | Assist | #? (Matthews, Rielly) → 2-2 | Matthews · Cowan Rielly · Stecher | Trocheck · Crouse · Carcone Schmidt · Peeke Cossa (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 12:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Rielly, Blueger) → 3-1 | Blueger · Duhaime Tanev · Rielly | Gallagher · Cotter · Sasson Schenn · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:54 | EV | Assist | Cowan (Stecher, Rielly) → 1-3 | Sissons · Cowan · McKenna Stecher · Rielly | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Parekh · Kuznetsov Cooley (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 06:23 | EV | Assist | Stecher (Marchenko, Rielly) → 3-0 | Paul · Marchenko · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Hallander · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Emberson · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 19:32 | EV | Assist | Stecher (Rielly, Duhaime) → 5-4 | Sissons · Paul · Duhaime · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Kartye · Cuylle Schneider · Gavrikov Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Morgan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher TOR | 60 | 10 | |
| Nick Paul TOR | 57 | 10 | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 54 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 53 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats