Nate Schmidt
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals4 × 3+12
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1603 × 0.01+16
- total49 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16649 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 49 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 16:48/game over the last 6, down 15% from 19:42 earlier in the season.
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for UTA — missed 2 games (2026-11-07, 2026-11-11).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.9% (852 shots before this season) — that's 0.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.9%, worth PD +0.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Capitals | 29 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Capitals | 39 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Capitals | 72 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 60 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 22 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 76 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 19 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 22:14 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 61 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 21:57 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 59 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 21:41 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 54 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 77 | 4 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 20:13 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 71 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18:28 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 63 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:49 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 80 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 16:32 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 82 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 31 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 1 | 0 | 86 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 17 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 4 | 13 | 18 | — | 19 | — | 0 | — | 19:05 | — | — | 93 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Radko Gudas (2025-25) · Erik Cernak (2025-25) · Brendan Smith (2024-24) · Brett Pesce (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 01:42 | EV | Assist | Cooley (#?, Trocheck) → 1-0 | Trocheck · Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther · Cooley DeSimone · Simashev | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Texier Xhekaj · Engstrom Dobes (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 11:44 | EV | Goal | Schmidt (Stenlund, But) → 3-2 | Schmaltz · Crouse · Stenlund · Keller · McBain · But Schmidt · DeSimone | Malkin · Rust · Novak · Dewar · Koivunen Letang · Karlsson · Solovyov · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| P2 14:40 | EV | Assist | Yamamoto (Schmidt, Hayton) → 4-2 | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Schmidt · Weegar · DeSimone · Simashev | Crosby · Rust · Rakell · Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Korczak · Solovyov · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nate over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Marino UTA | 70 | 5 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 69 | 10 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 51 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 50 | 10 | |
| Jack McBain UTA | 48 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats