Tyson Foerster
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots176 × 0.1+17.6
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1437 × 0.01+14.4
- total110 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242110 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 110 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for PHI — missed 1 game (2026-10-19).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.1
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 9.5% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.2% (385 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.4 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.9%, worth PD −4.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line is our public model’s season-length forecast — frozen 2026-11-13, the day this projection was first published — it does not slide with later results; methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 77 | 20 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 17:16 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 12.0% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 81 | 25 | 18 | 43 | -9 | 49 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 16:52 | 2 | 0 | 142 | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 29 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:18 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 21.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17:06 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 19 | 17 | 36 | — | 42 | — | 4 | — | 16:23 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — pace at first publication blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Emil Heineman (2025-25) · Artem Anisimov (2019-19) · James Neal (2020-20) · Alex Formenton (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 12 of 14 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 11 · @ EDML 2-31 G0 A1 PTS3 SOG0 ±17:50 TOI | |||||
| P2 16:49 | PP | Goal | Foerster (Tippett, Dvorak) → 1-2 | Dvorak · Konecny · Tippett · Foerster Bonk | Dickinson · Kapanen · Dach Ekholm · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
Nov 5 · @ NYRL 2-30 G1 A1 PTS1 SOG+1 ±17:13 TOI | |||||
| P2 10:10 | EV | Assist | Benoit (Foerster) → 1-1 | Acciari · Cates · Foerster Sanheim · Benoit | Zibanejad · Dorofeyev · Lafrenière Schneider · Morrow Garand (G) |
Nov 3 · vs MINL 2-41 G0 A1 PTS3 SOG+1 ±15:58 TOI | |||||
| P2 14:24 | EV | Goal | Foerster (Drysdale, Michkov) → 1-3 | Foerster · Barkey · Michkov Sanheim · Drysdale | Coleman · McCarron · Kaprizov Hughes · Spacek Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tyson over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 71 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 64 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 63 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 57 | 10 | |
| Travis Konecny PHI | 50 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats