Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots90 × 0.1+9
- PIM156 × 0.05+7.8
- ice time (min)696 × 0.01+7
- total90 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24290 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 90 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 9:51/game over the last 6, up 28% from 7:43 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 16 for TOR — missed 2 games (2026-10-10, 2026-10-13).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.3% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.7% (225 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.4%, worth PD +0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Canucks | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 17 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 29.4% | 50.0% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 34 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:38 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3.2% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 75 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -15 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 3.7% | 45.7% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 46 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 3 | 0 | 63 | 6.3% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:24 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 11.8% | 61.8% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 21 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:46 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7.7% | 42.9% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:20 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 15 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18.8% | 55.6% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 15 | 18 | 33 | — | 100 | — | 0 | — | 11:28 | — | — | 112 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | vs MIN | Assist | 04:05 · P2 · EV | Matthews (MacEwen, Raddysh) → 1-1 | MacEwen · Matthews · Blueger · Nylander McCabe · Raddysh | Boldy · Ek · Foligno · Kaprizov Bogosian · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 12 | vs MIN | Goal | 06:59 · P2 · EV | MacEwen (Blueger, #?) → 2-1 | MacEwen · Blueger · McKenna Mermis · McWard | Foligno · Hartman · Foligno Bogosian · Kiersted Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 31 | @ VAN | Goal | 12:34 · P2 · EV | MacEwen (Rielly, Blueger) → 3-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Tanev · Rielly | Gallagher · Cotter · Sasson Schenn · Buium Meriläinen (G) |
| Oct 24 | @ EDM | Goal | 13:39 · P3 · EV | MacEwen (Duhaime) → 5-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger McCabe · Raddysh | Hyman · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Murphy · Walman Jarry (G) |
| Oct 22 | vs NYR | Assist | 10:01 · P1 · EV | Blueger (Duhaime, MacEwen) → 2-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Blueger TOR | 71 | 10 | |
| Brandon Duhaime TOR | 62 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 32 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 30 | 10 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 28 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats