Jack Roslovic
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 71?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists38 × 1+38
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots225 × 0.1+22.5
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1434 × 0.01+14.3
- total172 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242172 = 71/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 172 points is 71 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for TOR — missed 1 game (2026-11-08).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.6% shooting on 51 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (965 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.1%, worth PD +5.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Matthews 17.7%, Raddysh 2.2%, Cowan 17.1%, McCabe 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 31 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 13.2% | 46.2% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 77 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 9:45 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 12.2% | 43.5% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 71 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:54 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 10.3% | 47.3% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 48 | 12 | 22 | 34 | -11 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:54 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 14.1% | 39.1% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 81 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14:17 | 4 | 1 | 131 | 16.8% | 43.5% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 77 | 11 | 33 | 44 | -14 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 16:27 | 2 | 1 | 123 | 8.9% | 45.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 40 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -9 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16:33 | 2 | 1 | 86 | 7.0% | 41.9% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:27 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 9.7% | 47.6% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 81 | 22 | 17 | 39 | -10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:49 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 15.8% | 54.1% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 69 | 21 | 15 | 36 | -9 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 15:46 | 5 | 2 | 141 | 14.9% | 53.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 20 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:17 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 16.7% | 38.5% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 30 | 38 | 69 | — | 44 | — | 7 | — | 16:20 | — | — | 186 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Brayden Point (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 03:33 | EV | Assist | Raddysh (Matthews, Roslovic) → 1-0 | Tavares · Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews · Tverberg · Cowan McCabe · Mermis · Raddysh · Stecher | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Burns · Juulsen Blackwood (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Goal | Roslovic (Cowan, Raddysh) → 3-3 | Tavares · Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews · Tverberg · Cowan McCabe · Raddysh | Kadri · Landeskog · MacKinnon · Roy Kulak · Toews · Makar · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 10:20 | EV | Goal | Roslovic (Matthews) → 1-1 | Paul · Nylander · Joshua · Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan Tanev · Rielly · Stecher | O'Brien · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Carcone · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · DeSimone Cossa (G) |
| P3 09:05 | EV | Goal | Roslovic (Matthews, Rielly) → 2-2 | Paul · Nylander · Joshua · Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan Tanev · Rielly · McCabe · Stecher | Trocheck · O'Brien · Crouse · Stenlund · Carcone Schmidt · Peeke · DeSimone · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 03:47 | EV | Assist | Matthews (Raddysh, Roslovic) → 2-1 | Blueger · Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews · Duhaime · MacEwen Ekman-Larsson · McCabe · Raddysh · Stecher | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Karlsson · Ohgren · Quillan Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Willander Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews TOR | 150 | 10 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 102 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 83 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 64 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats