Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 93?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals41 × 3+123
- proj assists41 × 1+41
- PP points56 × 0.5+28
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots145 × 0.1+14.5
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1553 × 0.01+15.5
- total226 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242226 = 93/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 226 points is 93 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for UTA — missed 1 game (2026-11-11).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +9.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 35.5% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.3% (562 shots before this season) — that's 6.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 22.2%, worth PD +9.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Trocheck 9.4%, Guenther 13.0%, Sergachev 10.9%, Crouse 7.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 82 | 20 | 24 | 44 | -13 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 15:49 | 2 | 1 | 151 | 13.2% | 38.0% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 75 | 25 | 40 | 65 | 1 | 46 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 17:52 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 15.8% | 44.7% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 54 | 24 | 19 | 43 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 17:20 | 3 | 1 | 102 | 23.5% | 44.3% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 18 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -5 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 18:29 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 35.5% | 48.1% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 41 | 41 | 82 | — | 40 | — | 28 | — | 17:10 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Dylan Guenther (2025-25) · Cole Caufield (2025-25) · Matt Boldy (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | @ MTL | Goal | 01:42 · P1 · EV | #? (#?, Trocheck) → 1-0 | Guenther · Trocheck · Crouse Peeke · Simashev · DeSimone | Kreider · Evans · Texier Engstrom · Xhekaj Dobes (G) |
| Nov 5 | @ MTL | Goal | 09:24 · P1 · PP | Cooley (Schmaltz, Sergachev) → 2-0 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Danault · Evans Guhle · Carrier Dobes (G) |
| Nov 5 | @ MTL | Assist | 07:14 · P3 · PP | Schmaltz (Cooley, Guenther) → 4-3 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Carcone · Cooley Sergachev | Danault · Evans Guhle · Carrier Dobes (G) |
| Nov 5 | @ MTL | Goal | 11:05 · P2 · PP | Cooley (Schmaltz, Keller) → 3-2 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Newhook · Anderson Carrier · Xhekaj Dobes (G) |
| Nov 1 | @ PHI | Assist | 14:24 · P1 · EV | Simashev (Trocheck, #?) → 1-1 | Trocheck · McBain · Crouse Peeke · Simashev · Duda | Couturier · Acciari · Knuble York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Logan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 130 | 10 | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA | 103 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 93 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 60 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats