Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 24?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists9 × 1+9
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots63 × 0.1+6.3
- PIM67 × 0.05+3.4
- ice time (min)1529 × 0.01+15.3
- total40 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16640 = 24/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 40 points is 24 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.4% (1371 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.4%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | Coyotes | 48 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Coyotes | 82 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 22:07 | 2 | 0 | 147 | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Coyotes | 48 | 3 | 21 | 24 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 25:06 | 1 | 0 | 101 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Coyotes | 80 | 15 | 29 | 44 | -4 | 50 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 25:54 | 6 | 1 | 199 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Coyotes | 82 | 23 | 20 | 43 | -18 | 40 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 25:13 | 7 | 3 | 264 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Coyotes | 75 | 21 | 34 | 55 | -6 | 96 | 12 | 27 | 0 | 24:46 | 8 | 2 | 228 | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 79 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -25 | 48 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 24:37 | 1 | 1 | 145 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 82 | 14 | 28 | 42 | -28 | 44 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 23:41 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 81 | 14 | 30 | 44 | -16 | 52 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 23:38 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 66 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -3 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 23:01 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 46 | 3 | 21 | 24 | -17 | 32 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 20:58 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 79 | 5 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 52 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 22:19 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 54 | 2 | 20 | 22 | -24 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:11 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 80 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18:24 | 3 | 1 | 123 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 77 | 4 | 25 | 29 | 14 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 21:04 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 8 | 31 | 39 | -6 | 70 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 20:36 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 2 | 9 | 11 | — | 61 | — | 5 | — | 18:32 | — | — | 80 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Erik Cernak (2025-25) · Radko Gudas (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25).
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Oliver over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher TOR | 84 | 10 | |
| Nick Paul TOR | 63 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 57 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 56 | 10 | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats